Well, we got what we wanted. After the first stop on the Kobe Bryant revenge tour, we’re shipping out to Boston and getting a rematch of that 2008 slugfest most of us Lakers fans want to forget. I know people are going to whine about Boston-LA dominance, but this match-up is truly epic and has a lot of bad blood from two years ago. Before we get into the Lakers-Celtics encore, we should spend a little time on the Western Conference Finals.
Lakers-Suns: Hating on Hollinger the Nihilistic Basketball Robot
Before I make fun of Mr. Hollinger, I’d like to truly congratulate the Phoenix Suns organization. Just last year, Steve Kerr had gutted this team of Seven Seconds or Less and had the Big Cactus in tow, dominating the ball and snuffing out the magic that had driven Phoenix for years. This year, the team came together admirably, reinstalling the things that had worked so well under D’Antoni while actually doing things like playing some defense from time to time. Alvin Gentry is a great coach, better than the Pringles Man if you ask me, and actually took the time to develop a bench, who not only relieved Nash’s aching back but also become one of their greatest strengths.
This time truly showed resilience in a way that previous Phoenix teams hadn’t. They had real chemistry and battled, persevering against a business-like Lakers team that many would have folded much earlier against. They had a real shot to win a series against a peaking Lakers team with too much talent and length for them to handle. Think about shot after shot after shot that Kobe had to take/make in Game 6. This array of circus shots was perfectly defended and the only thing the suddenly stingy man-to-man defense was giving up. Even with Kobe’s all-around brilliance while having his best statistical playoff series ever, the Suns hung in there.
Now, it’s time for the Hollinger bashing. Hollinger, who’s beloved Jazz, Magic, and Suns all failed to maintain their regular season magic, is a master at extrapolation but tends to overlook the obvious quite a bit. Instead of associating positive point differential with great teams as a correlation for winning championships, it becomes his only framework. Here are his thoughts before the series:
“For starters, you'd have a tough time proving that L.A. is the better team. The Suns had a better scoring margin in the regular season (a superior predictor of future success).”
Silver Screen and Roll, a premier Lakers blog, summarizes the issue with Hollinger far better than I could:
“Hollinger has a system which relies on stats to predict outcomes. His predictions are not made out of hatred of the Lakers. His picks are made because statistics hate the Lakers. The Lakers don't perform with the consistency required by a statistical model. Let's take a quick review of all the talking points going into this series. The Suns, coming off an impressive sweep of the San Antonio Spurs, were winning games in ways we never really thought possible. They were still the running, gunning team, but their bench went 10 deep, and brought grittiness and tenacity. Most important of all, the Suns could now play some defense. They had been playing better basketball than the Lakers for a long stretch of time. The Lakers talking points? They're big, they're the champs, they've got Kobe. Well, guess what? Every single one of those talking points bore themselves out over the course of this series.”
The Lakers dominated the glass, used their length to their advantage, and didn’t lose sight of the fact that they have the best closer in the game on their side. The Lakers won in 6. Sorry Johnny.
Lakers-Celtics match-ups
Since the 2008 NBA finals, the last time the Lakers have lost a playoff series, a lot has changed. I don’t know a Lakers fan that doesn’t still have a bitter taste in their mouth from that series, with so many points of contention to focus on. There are plenty of bad memories from that series: Paul Pierce’s wheelchair moment, the 23-point collapse, the 39-point blow-out, Leon Powe getting more FT’s than our whole team, and the endless accusations of the Lakers being softer than a Euro League All-Star Team.
After Kobe’s reaction to a Phoenix series (who has beaten us in as many playoff series as the Spurs in the last decade BTW), you can only imagine what kind of anger and determination he’s saved up for KG and company. I’ve seen enough interviews with this crew to know the Lakers remember every minute it, but, more importantly, they are holding on to the feeling they had when they lost in 2008. Rematches are fairly rare in the modern history of the L, but this one has seemed inevitable since the Celtics showed LeBron James that the regular season is just that. This time, a lot has changed for both teams.
The Lakers have home court advantage and have the confidence that comes with being the defending champs. They’ve also become a defensive juggernaut of a team who’s just recently showing signs that it remembers how to play the triangle with beautiful ball movement and gaudy points-per-possession statistics. They no longer have Ariza or a lot of their former bench, but they’ve added ball-hawker Ron Artest and Shannon Brown to the mix. And Bynum is kind of healthy, but at least playing this time around.
The Celtics have gotten 2 years older, but they’ve picked up a new supporting cast around the 2008 core. Their identity is still around team defense that chokes off your air supply like a python. They’ve lost Powe and Posey, but they’ve added Rasheed Wallace, Nate Robinson, and Marquis Daniels to the mix. Oh, and that Rondo character who was a liability as much as he was a strength? He’s turned into one of the top 3 point guards alive.
Point Guard: Derek "I'm Still Here!" Fisher vs. Rajon "Do You Feel Lucky?" Rondo
Derek Fisher has been incredible during these playoffs, providing shot after shot in the clutch and holding his own against some elite company. He’s had to play Russell Westbrook, Deron Williams, Steve Nash, and now Rondo, 4 of the best PG’s in the game today. Rondo has had the decided advantage is every series thus far, chewing up his competition. While I fully expect Fish to make some excellent plays and big shots, Rondo could fully well be the one Celtic we let go off (see: dare to make 15 foot jumpers) to shut down the rest of the team. Rondo is the best defensive/rebounding PG in the league already and is incredible playmaker to boot. If he ever figures out that jump shot, we’re all screwed. I would not be surprised if we put Kobe on Rondo or switched up coverage as much as possible to mess with him. Ron Artest can't guard him like Ariza used to, but Brown could provide a little muscle there. Rondo, at the end of the day, is going to get his against the Lakers.
Advantage: Celtics (huge)
Shooting Guard: Kobe "Black Mamba" Bryant vs. Ray "I Can't Stop Sneering" Allen
This match-up will probably see the least actual matching-up of all the prospective combinations. I think that D-Fish will see extended Ray Allen duty and Ray Allen will probably be replaced by a combination of Tony Allen/Paul Pierce for most of the duties on Kobe Bryant. Ray Allen is still spry and has plenty of juice left, but he’s also become erratic and inconsistent. Even so, he still has huge games from time to time and, when he does, Boston doesn’t often lose them. The Lakers can’t afford to leave him open or let Kobe do his roving defense on one of the greatest shooters of all time. On the other hand, Ray Allen doesn’t have the size or the quickness to guard Kobe and his perfect footwork.
Remember folks: the C’s do not have James Posey to put on Kobe like they did in 2008 (he was BY far their most effective defender on Bryant). By putting Posey/Pierce on him and swarming, Kobe couldn’t see over the defense and turned the ball over a lot when doubled. Pierce has also lost a step and may struggle keeping up with Kobe, but should do a decent job. Anyone who thinks that Tony Allen can check Kobe over the course of a series needs to get their head checked. You also can bet that Kobe still remembers this quote from Pierce: “I don't think Kobe is the best player. I'm the best player. There's a line that separates having confidence and being conceited. I don't cross that line but I have a lot of confidence in myself.”
Advantage: Lakers (duh)
Small Forward: Ron "Queensbridge, Yeah." Artest vs. Paul "I'm the Best Player Alive When I'm Not Faking An Injury" Pierce
While I don’t think that this is THE match-up that determines this series, it is certainly a big one. We brought Crazy Pills onto the Lakers for a few reasons: Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Paul Pierce. Ron is going to prolong Kobe’s career by guarding these bigger threes that Ariza simply didn’t have the muscle to push around. Although we got a pass on Carmelo, Ron Artest on Pierce is going to be delight. Expect tantrums, expect whining, and expect Pierce to have to earn his points against someone who won’t fall for all his tricks, can’t be outmuscled by him, and plays perfect position defense. Pierce will still have a good game or two, but after what Ron-Ron did to Durant I’m expecting some fireworks and frustration here. If Ron can play Pierce tightly and leave Kobe to work on the backcourt, this could be a huge game-changer for the Lakers. For my money, Artest has already earned his salary with the series on Durant and the last few games against the Suns, but I would love to see him continue to make the Lakers front office look smart against Pierce. That said, Pierce has been playing better as of late. The Magic lacked Ron Artest, but I think Pierce will be tough to shut down completely.
Advantage: Slightly Boston
Power Forward: Pau "Damn Good and Looks Like an Ostrich" Gasol vs. Kevin "I'm Still a Giant Ass" Garnett
This match-up is the X-Factor, the one that matters, and the one that has become the most intriguing. So many things have changed in the last two years for these players. Pau Gasol has largely shed the “soft Euro” label he wore before outplaying Howard offensively AND guarding him as well as anyone in the Finals last year. He has made two straight All-NBA Third Teams and looks slated to stay a perennial All-Star for a while. He’s gotten more comfortable with the triangle offense and has gotten better and better since coming to LA. Seriously though, Gasol needs to have his way offensively for the Lakers to win. Like 21/12. Gasol will also benefit immensely from having Bynum occupy Kendrick Perkins, who was able to push him around two years ago.
Garnett, on the other hand, is impossible to figure out entirely. He’s been showing his age the most among the Big Three and dropped his rebounding to just over 7 a game as he’s struggled to overcome knee injuries that knocked him out of last year’s playoffs and limited most of the season. His declining effectiveness had been making his tough-guy act just look pathetic, but he recovered to look great against Cleveland and Miami. That said, he returned to look limited again against Orlando. Two years ago, he was arguably the Celltics best player and he just abused Gasol while still sliding around and dominating on defense. He was their general, their rock. This year? He’s lost more than a step and a good amount of his freakish recovery ability. The Lakers should be able to neutralize him defensively with Gasol and Odom, but they need to abuse him on the offensive end if we want to win this series. This is THE key match-up for the series. We have outrebound, outdefend, and outplay their frontcourt and this is where we need to do it by the widest margin.
Advantage: Lakers
Center: Andrew “Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde” Bynum vs. Kendrick “Gargoyle Face" Perkins
This match-up is pretty straightforward, who wants it more? Bynum wasn't there two years ago, which is a pretty huge addition, but this match-up isn't rocket science. It’s pretty clear that Perkins is going to bring the intensity and do his thing, but what will we get from Bynum? If AB is able to use his significant advantages in length and athleticism, this one could be a big one for the Lake Show. More likely, he will show flashes but neither side will dominate this match-up consistently. For the Lakers to win, AB needs to hold his own blocking shots on defense and on the boards. If he does that, the scoring would just be a bonus.
Advantage: Even
Bench: The Lakers “We Used to Be the Bench Mob…” Bench vs. The Celtics “Hate Me Now” Bench
With a healthy-ish Andrew Bynum, the Lakers bench has Odom consistently and benefits immensely. Since 2008, Odom has had some big playoff moments, but the rest of the bench has largely declined. Luke Walton has been hurt and Jordan Farmar has been awful until he's started to turn it on in the playoffs. The Lakers have lost some bench depth, losing Ariza and some other key contributors and replacing them with Shannon Brown’s freak athleticism. The Lakers starters are healthier though and they’ll take that trade-off for more limited depth.
The Celtics have also lost a lot of depth and weapons that previously hurt the Lakers. Posey was a key cog against the Lakers, hitting big threes and playing clutch D on Kobe, who has headed on to greener pastures. PJ Brown and Leon Powe, who came out of nowhere to destroy the Laker frontcourt and make the difference in several games, have also left. Those three subtractions alone make a world of difference in this series. While Sam Cassell didn’t add much, Eddie House consistently killed the Lakers. In their place, they’ve brought in Rasheed Wallace (a tri-fecta of the Blazers, Pistons, and Celtics makes him one of my most hated players ever), Nate Robinson, and developed Big Baby Davis into a rotation player. They are as limited in depth as the Lakers, but all three bench players have demonstrated their ability to shoot the Celtics in and out of games in this post-season. Luckily for us, they have been even more inconsistent than our bench.
With Odom and the gang playing a bit more consistently, this will seem like a much easier assignment than playing the Suns reserves. As long as they continue shoot the three-ball well, this should favor the Lakers a bit.
Advantage: Lakers
Prediction: Lakers in 6.
This shouldn't be a surprise, I'm obviously a big Lakers fan. That said, I do believe that the Lakers are the better team this time and am absolutely intrigued by the fact that both teams are peaking at the same time. I think that the addition of Ron Artest and the experience of winning the championship last year have battle-tested the Lakers and make our defense/toughness remarkably different than they were two years ago. Kobe has been absolutely incredible and his team finally looks capable of giving him the support he needs to win this epic battle.
At the same time, Boston has largely declined in the last two years as they've aged, but they have become healthy at the right time. Garnett (biggest drop-off), Allen, and Pierce are not quite the same, but Rondo has gotten much much better and the biggest addition this season has been chemistry. The Celtics have finally admitted that their world does revolve around Rondo and the reestablishment of the pecking order is a big reason for their subsequent success. This team all too often looked disinterested and self-absorbed during the season this year, but now they look determined and purposeful. Even so, I just don't think they have it this year.
The Lakers have the gritty defense to throw back at them this time around and should have at least as much offensive success against these Celtics. I just can't believe that Rasheed/Nate/Big Baby are going to have the HUGE impact off the bench that Posey/Powe/Brown had two years ago and I don't think they have the advantages in the starting match-ups they had either. The Lakers start off strong defending their home-court (undefeated there these playoffs) and Kobe ties Magic Johnson in ring-count as he gets the Celtics monkey off his back.